TY - JOUR
T1 - The Synchronization of ASEAN +3 Business Cycles:Prerequisites for Common Currency Union
AU - Riyanto, Feri Dwi
AU - Erlando, Angga
AU - Haryanto, Tri
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
©This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - This study aims to analyze the relationship between the business cycles of the ASEAN +3 countries. In addition, the effects of the spillover value on the coincident indicators are determined. This study employs secondary data and uses multivariate time series of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. The proxy was the real gross domestic product (GDP) collected annually from the CEIC, the IMF, and the World Bank for the period from 1964 to 2016. The data was plotted against two time periods, 1964-1998 as the pre-crisis period, and 1999-2016 as the post-crisis period. The index data was changed to the base year 2010. The data was subsequently separated from the trends and the cyclic components. The cyclic components were obtained by using Hondrick- Prescott filter, and them were further analyzed. The analytical method used was Contemporaneous and Cross-Correlation tools. The results showed that, before and after the crisis, the value of the business cycle correlation between ASEAN +3 countries was stronger and moved together at the same level of lag value. The implication of this research was an initial finding of the ASEAN +3 countries’ prerequisites for the formation of a common currency.
AB - This study aims to analyze the relationship between the business cycles of the ASEAN +3 countries. In addition, the effects of the spillover value on the coincident indicators are determined. This study employs secondary data and uses multivariate time series of five ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines. The proxy was the real gross domestic product (GDP) collected annually from the CEIC, the IMF, and the World Bank for the period from 1964 to 2016. The data was plotted against two time periods, 1964-1998 as the pre-crisis period, and 1999-2016 as the post-crisis period. The index data was changed to the base year 2010. The data was subsequently separated from the trends and the cyclic components. The cyclic components were obtained by using Hondrick- Prescott filter, and them were further analyzed. The analytical method used was Contemporaneous and Cross-Correlation tools. The results showed that, before and after the crisis, the value of the business cycle correlation between ASEAN +3 countries was stronger and moved together at the same level of lag value. The implication of this research was an initial finding of the ASEAN +3 countries’ prerequisites for the formation of a common currency.
KW - ASEAN+3
KW - Business Cycle Synchronization
KW - Economic Integrationn
KW - Optimum Currency Area
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85102290838&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no3.0781
DO - 10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no3.0781
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85102290838
SN - 2288-4637
VL - 8
SP - 781
EP - 791
JO - Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
JF - Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
IS - 3
ER -