The impact of us-China trade war in forecasting the gold price using arimax model

Christopher Andreas, Ilma Amira Rahmayanti, Siti Maghfirotiil Ulyah

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Global uncertainties have made many investors turn to gold investments that are classified as safe assets. Even so, the puce of gold moved quite dynamically amid the conditions of the trade war between the US and China. The development of an accurate forecasting model for estimating gold price fluctuations is very important and useful for investors. For tins reason, this study aims to determine whether the US-China trade war has a significant impact on the puce of gold and predict the price of gold for the next several periods. This study found that the trade war between the US and China affected the price of gold significantly. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) approach by considenng the mfluence of the US and China trade war as an exogenous variable, an excellent ARIMAX model was obtamed with the MAPE of 2.6 percent for traming data. Moreover, tins model has a good forecasting performance with the MAPE of 9.6 percent for testing data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020
EditorsCicik Alfiniyah, Fatmawati, Windarto
PublisherAmerican Institute of Physics Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9780735440739
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Feb 2021
EventInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020, ICoMCoS 2020 - Surabaya, Indonesia
Duration: 29 Sept 2020 → …

Publication series

NameAIP Conference Proceedings
Volume2329
ISSN (Print)0094-243X
ISSN (Electronic)1551-7616

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020, ICoMCoS 2020
Country/TerritoryIndonesia
CitySurabaya
Period29/09/20 → …

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