TY - GEN
T1 - The impact of us-China trade war in forecasting the gold price using arimax model
AU - Andreas, Christopher
AU - Rahmayanti, Ilma Amira
AU - Ulyah, Siti Maghfirotiil
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/2/26
Y1 - 2021/2/26
N2 - Global uncertainties have made many investors turn to gold investments that are classified as safe assets. Even so, the puce of gold moved quite dynamically amid the conditions of the trade war between the US and China. The development of an accurate forecasting model for estimating gold price fluctuations is very important and useful for investors. For tins reason, this study aims to determine whether the US-China trade war has a significant impact on the puce of gold and predict the price of gold for the next several periods. This study found that the trade war between the US and China affected the price of gold significantly. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) approach by considenng the mfluence of the US and China trade war as an exogenous variable, an excellent ARIMAX model was obtamed with the MAPE of 2.6 percent for traming data. Moreover, tins model has a good forecasting performance with the MAPE of 9.6 percent for testing data.
AB - Global uncertainties have made many investors turn to gold investments that are classified as safe assets. Even so, the puce of gold moved quite dynamically amid the conditions of the trade war between the US and China. The development of an accurate forecasting model for estimating gold price fluctuations is very important and useful for investors. For tins reason, this study aims to determine whether the US-China trade war has a significant impact on the puce of gold and predict the price of gold for the next several periods. This study found that the trade war between the US and China affected the price of gold significantly. Using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (ARIMAX) approach by considenng the mfluence of the US and China trade war as an exogenous variable, an excellent ARIMAX model was obtamed with the MAPE of 2.6 percent for traming data. Moreover, tins model has a good forecasting performance with the MAPE of 9.6 percent for testing data.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85102494881&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1063/5.0042361
DO - 10.1063/5.0042361
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85102494881
T3 - AIP Conference Proceedings
BT - International Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020
A2 - Alfiniyah, Cicik
A2 - Fatmawati, null
A2 - Windarto, null
PB - American Institute of Physics Inc.
T2 - International Conference on Mathematics, Computational Sciences and Statistics 2020, ICoMCoS 2020
Y2 - 29 September 2020
ER -