TY - JOUR
T1 - The cost-effectiveness of social distancing measures for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in a highly-populated country
T2 - A case study in Indonesia
AU - Suwantika, Auliya A.
AU - Dhamanti, Inge
AU - Suharto, Yulianto
AU - Purba, Fredrick D.
AU - Abdulah, Rizky
N1 - Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Ministry of Education and Culture, Republic of Indonesia (Grant number: 1207/UN6.3.1/PT.00/2021), and Universitas Padjadjaran (Grant number: 1427/UN6.3.1/LT/2020).
Funding Information:
This study was funded by the Ministry of Education and Culture , Republic of Indonesia (Grant number: 1207/UN6.3.1/PT.00/2021 ), and Universitas Padjadjaran (Grant number: 1427/UN6.3.1/LT/2020 ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2022/1/1
Y1 - 2022/1/1
N2 - Background: As one of the strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing (SD) measures are recommended to control disease spread and reduce the attack rate. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the costs and effects of SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Methods: Two mitigation scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD were compared with the baseline (no intervention). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model accounting for disease spread during the latent period was applied by considering a 1-year time horizon. The costs of healthcare, school closures, and productivity loss due to disease as well as intervention were considered to estimate the total pandemic cost among all scenarios. Results: In a comparison with the baseline, the result showed that total savings in scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD was approximately $415 billion and $699 billion, respectively, while the averted deaths were 4.6 million and 8.5 million, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that basic reproduction number, infectious period, daily wage, incubation period, daily ICU admission cost, and case fatality rate were the most influential parameters affecting the savings and the number of averted deaths. Conclusions: SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions were concluded to be cost-saving. Increasing the duration of social distancing tends to increase both the savings and the number of averted deaths.
AB - Background: As one of the strategies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing (SD) measures are recommended to control disease spread and reduce the attack rate. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the costs and effects of SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Methods: Two mitigation scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD were compared with the baseline (no intervention). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model accounting for disease spread during the latent period was applied by considering a 1-year time horizon. The costs of healthcare, school closures, and productivity loss due to disease as well as intervention were considered to estimate the total pandemic cost among all scenarios. Results: In a comparison with the baseline, the result showed that total savings in scenarios of SD for 1 month and continuous SD was approximately $415 billion and $699 billion, respectively, while the averted deaths were 4.6 million and 8.5 million, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that basic reproduction number, infectious period, daily wage, incubation period, daily ICU admission cost, and case fatality rate were the most influential parameters affecting the savings and the number of averted deaths. Conclusions: SD measures through school closures, workforce, and community contact reductions were concluded to be cost-saving. Increasing the duration of social distancing tends to increase both the savings and the number of averted deaths.
KW - Community contact reduction
KW - Cost-saving
KW - SEIR model
KW - School closures
KW - Workforce
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85121771213&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102245
DO - 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102245
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85121771213
SN - 1477-8939
VL - 45
JO - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
JF - Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
M1 - 102245
ER -