Regional economic performance and number of incumbent votes on regional head elections in Indonesia

The regional head elections in Indonesia, which is the subject of this research, are a contest between two candidates: the incumbent and the challenger. This study focuses on the incumbent since they have two main motives: a social motivation to maximize the level of satisfaction of the people in their area and a political motive to keep the government in power during the regional head elections. Because the incumbent is serving a two-year term, they must analyze the acts made in terms of both time and potential limits. There are observable and unobservable variables to consider while evaluating the incumbent's performance. This paper aims to examine how regional economic performance as an observable variable, because it affects the political sustainability of incumbents in maintaining their power. To win the regional head election, incumbents must identify economic factors that can raise the number of votes. The economic growth variable considerably boosts people's willingness to vote for the incumbent. Incumbents must anticipate and consider economic variables like unemployment and the Gini coefficient, which can potentially diminish their vote numbers. To create widespread sympathy for the incumbent in the election campaign, incumbents must pay attention to the poor and empathize with them. People want a peaceful election that does not generate conflict. Thus they should consider forming a coalition of supporting parties.