TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction of the number dengue hemorrhagic fever patients in district Jombang Regency using transfer function model approach
AU - Sediono,
AU - Tjahjono, E.
AU - Maulana, T. D.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 IOP Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.
PY - 2019/8/16
Y1 - 2019/8/16
N2 - Transfer function describes the values of future prediction from output series (Yt ) based on its past value and also based on one or more input series (Xt ) as the dependent variables. Single input transfer function model is a transfer function model that use one variable as input series (Xt ).Then, this single input transfer function model was applied to make the model and forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases (Yt ) in Jombang based on rainfall (Xt ). From the model, it couldbe described that the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in a month was affected by rainfall on that month, rainfall two month earlier, rainfall twelve month earlier, rainfall thirteen month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases a month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases twelve month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases thirteen month earlier, and also residual value on that month. Based on the transfer function model result, it the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Jombang could be predicted for next 20 months. After comparing the prediction result and the actual data, we obtained that almost all the prediction results (75%) were valid.
AB - Transfer function describes the values of future prediction from output series (Yt ) based on its past value and also based on one or more input series (Xt ) as the dependent variables. Single input transfer function model is a transfer function model that use one variable as input series (Xt ).Then, this single input transfer function model was applied to make the model and forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases (Yt ) in Jombang based on rainfall (Xt ). From the model, it couldbe described that the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in a month was affected by rainfall on that month, rainfall two month earlier, rainfall twelve month earlier, rainfall thirteen month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases a month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases twelve month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases thirteen month earlier, and also residual value on that month. Based on the transfer function model result, it the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Jombang could be predicted for next 20 months. After comparing the prediction result and the actual data, we obtained that almost all the prediction results (75%) were valid.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071836545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1742-6596/1277/1/012049
DO - 10.1088/1742-6596/1277/1/012049
M3 - Conference article
AN - SCOPUS:85071836545
SN - 1742-6588
VL - 1277
JO - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
JF - Journal of Physics: Conference Series
IS - 1
M1 - 012049
T2 - 2nd International Conference on Mathematics, Science and Computer Science 2018, ICMSC 2018
Y2 - 24 October 2018
ER -