PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS ON SIS-SEIS TYPES MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA INDONESIA

D. C. Maulana; Moh I. Utoyo; U. D. Purwati; C. W. Chukwu

doi:10.28919/cmbn/7739

PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS ON SIS-SEIS TYPES MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA INDONESIA

Fatmawati, D. C. Maulana, Windarto, Moh I. Utoyo, U. D. Purwati, C. W. Chukwu

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this work, the parameter estimation of the SIS-SEIS types of Tuberculosis (TB) model is considered based on the data of TB-infected cases in East Java Province, Indonesia. We utilize the combination of the performance index approach in the optimal control theory and genetic algorithm to estimate the TB model parameters. Two basic reproduction numbers were also determined as well. The sensitivity analysis is performed to establish the most significant parameters on the TB model transmission dynamics. Based on the parameter estimation results of the SIS-SEIS types TB models, the basic reproduction numbers for both models are greater than one which means that, TB disease will persist in the province. Furthermore, the simulation of the TB model is carried out using the parameter estimation results which confirms that the spread of TB is ongoing in East Java Indonesia, and is yet to reach its endemicity.

Original language	English
Journal	Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience
Volume	2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.28919/cmbn/7739
Publication status	Published - 2022

Keywords

genetic algorithm
model
optimal control theory
parameter estimation
tuberculosis

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.28919/cmbn/7739

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title = "PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS ON SIS-SEIS TYPES MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA INDONESIA",

abstract = "In this work, the parameter estimation of the SIS-SEIS types of Tuberculosis (TB) model is considered based on the data of TB-infected cases in East Java Province, Indonesia. We utilize the combination of the performance index approach in the optimal control theory and genetic algorithm to estimate the TB model parameters. Two basic reproduction numbers were also determined as well. The sensitivity analysis is performed to establish the most significant parameters on the TB model transmission dynamics. Based on the parameter estimation results of the SIS-SEIS types TB models, the basic reproduction numbers for both models are greater than one which means that, TB disease will persist in the province. Furthermore, the simulation of the TB model is carried out using the parameter estimation results which confirms that the spread of TB is ongoing in East Java Indonesia, and is yet to reach its endemicity.",

keywords = "genetic algorithm, model, optimal control theory, parameter estimation, tuberculosis",

author = "Fatmawati and Maulana, {D. C.} and Windarto and Utoyo, {Moh I.} and Purwati, {U. D.} and Chukwu, {C. W.}",

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year = "2022",

doi = "10.28919/cmbn/7739",

language = "English",

volume = "2022",

journal = "Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience",

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T1 - PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS ON SIS-SEIS TYPES MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA INDONESIA

AU - Fatmawati,

AU - Maulana, D. C.

AU - Windarto,

AU - Utoyo, Moh I.

AU - Purwati, U. D.

AU - Chukwu, C. W.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - In this work, the parameter estimation of the SIS-SEIS types of Tuberculosis (TB) model is considered based on the data of TB-infected cases in East Java Province, Indonesia. We utilize the combination of the performance index approach in the optimal control theory and genetic algorithm to estimate the TB model parameters. Two basic reproduction numbers were also determined as well. The sensitivity analysis is performed to establish the most significant parameters on the TB model transmission dynamics. Based on the parameter estimation results of the SIS-SEIS types TB models, the basic reproduction numbers for both models are greater than one which means that, TB disease will persist in the province. Furthermore, the simulation of the TB model is carried out using the parameter estimation results which confirms that the spread of TB is ongoing in East Java Indonesia, and is yet to reach its endemicity.

AB - In this work, the parameter estimation of the SIS-SEIS types of Tuberculosis (TB) model is considered based on the data of TB-infected cases in East Java Province, Indonesia. We utilize the combination of the performance index approach in the optimal control theory and genetic algorithm to estimate the TB model parameters. Two basic reproduction numbers were also determined as well. The sensitivity analysis is performed to establish the most significant parameters on the TB model transmission dynamics. Based on the parameter estimation results of the SIS-SEIS types TB models, the basic reproduction numbers for both models are greater than one which means that, TB disease will persist in the province. Furthermore, the simulation of the TB model is carried out using the parameter estimation results which confirms that the spread of TB is ongoing in East Java Indonesia, and is yet to reach its endemicity.

KW - genetic algorithm

KW - model

KW - optimal control theory

KW - parameter estimation

KW - tuberculosis

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DO - 10.28919/cmbn/7739

M3 - Article

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SN - 2052-2541

VL - 2022

JO - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

JF - Communications in Mathematical Biology and Neuroscience

ER -

PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND ANALYSIS ON SIS-SEIS TYPES MODEL OF TUBERCULOSIS TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA INDONESIA

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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