Modelling electronic money transaction volumes based on the intervention analysis

People's life styles change continuously with mcreasing needs which must be fulfilled. People need an efficient, easy, and fast payment system. One of them is by using electronic money. By using electronic money, more control is needed in order to create financial system stability'. To support this condition, one of the ways is predicting and analyzing the volume of e-money transactions using the intervention analysis approach. Intervention analysis is a tune series model that can be used to model and predict data containing shocks or interventions from both external and internal factors. In tins study, the data are secondary data taken from the Bank Indonesia website on the volume of e-money transactions. The results obtamed by the best intervention model is ARIMA (2,2,0) with order b = 0, s = 0, and r = 2. Then the modeling and prediction results show that the intervention model is good, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 12.24.