Modeling the Percentage of NEET in Indonesia with Spatial Cauchy Regression through the Bayesian Analysis Approach

Indonesia has entered a period of demographic bonus. Human resources must be optimized. The number of children who do not in employment, education or training (NEET) in each province needs attention. Several factors that could contribute to the decline in the NEET percentage are literacy rates and the number of adolescents with computer skills. Increasing these two factors is believed to be able to reduce the percentage of NEET in every province in Indonesia. To find out the relationship between these two factors and how much influence they have on the percentage of NEET, this research is modeled by Cauchy regression and includes spatial effects. The results of the analysis show that the best model is when the spatial effect is modeled by Fernandez Steel Skew Normal conditionally autoregressive (FSSN CAR). This result is seen from the smallest value of the Watanabe Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) in this model, which is 190.5. The parameter estimated shows that the higher the literacy rate and the number of adolescents with computer skills, the lower the percentage of NEET in each province in Indonesia. The results of this research can be useful for the Indonesian government to increase the number of educational facilities related to these two factors.