Geo-spatial analysis: the impact of agriculture productivity, drought, and irrigation on poverty in East Java, Indonesia

The aim of the present study is to empirically measure the contribution of drought and productivity of agriculture to the poverty in East Java, Indonesia. The study uses data from 2010 to 2020 by using Rice productivity, Drought as independent variable and poverty as dependent variable. The study includes other important explanatory variables such as human development indexes, irrigation, and GDRP. The present research utilizes the Spatial Econometrics-Random Effect Model which allows for controlling for regional dependency. The results confirm the presence of spatial autocorrelation in poverty, indicating that poverty can spread across the region. The study also reveals a positive and significant relationship between poverty and agricultural productivity growth. However, only wealthier persons, such as middlemen and farmers, may benefit from productivity development while small-scale farmers and vulnerable communities continue to live in poverty. As a consequence, impoverished individuals may need to resort to selling their assets or borrowing money to cover their daily expenses. The study shows a significant negative relationship between irrigation and poverty, highlighting the critical role irrigation plays in helping small-scale farmers increase their income. Therefore, the authors suggest that sustaining the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing’s irrigation policy could be an effective poverty alleviation strategy.