Estimating the Values of Malaria Spread Model Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Method

Malaria is an infectious disease that still poses a health problem in several regions of Indonesia, especially in the eastern parts of the country. This disease is transmitted through the bite of Anopheles mosquitoes. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the spread of malaria. One of the investigations to determine the extent of malaria transmission is by estimating the values of variables in a mathematical model of malaria spread. The model used consists of two populations: humans and mosquitoes, which are divided into several sub-populations, including Susceptible human sub-population, Exposed human sub-population, Infected human sub-population, Recovered human sub-population, Susceptible mosquito sub-population, Exposed mosquito sub-population, and Infected mosquito sub-population. In this final project, variable estimation of the mathematical model of malaria transmission will be conducted using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method. This mathematical model of malaria transmission is a system in the form of a nonlinear continuous model. The estimation results indicate that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can provide accurate estimates in the mathematical model of malaria transmission, with an RMSE value of 0.005. The EnKF method can be used to estimate the values of variables that are difficult to measure directly and can provide accurate estimates in the mathematical model of malaria transmission.