TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 with comorbidity
T2 - A modeling study of Indonesia
AU - Rois, Muhammad Abdurrahman
AU - Fatmawati,
AU - Alfiniyah, Cicik
AU - Chukwu, Chidozie W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2023 Rois, Fatmawati, Alfiniyah and Chukwu.
PY - 2023/1/6
Y1 - 2023/1/6
N2 - Comorbidity is defined as the coexistence of two or more diseases in a person at the same time. The mathematical analysis of the COVID-19 model with comorbidities presented includes model validation of cumulative cases infected with COVID-19 from 1 November 2020 to 19 May 2021 in Indonesia, followed by positivity and boundedness solutions, equilibrium point, basic reproduction number (R0), and stability of the equilibrium point. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine how the parameters affect the spread. Disease-free equilibrium points are asymptotically stable locally and globally if R0 < 1 and endemic equilibrium points exist, locally and globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. In addition, this disease is endemic in Indonesia, with R0 = 1.47. Furthermore, two optimal controls, namely public education and increased medical care, are included in the model to determine the best strategy to reduce the spread of the disease. Overall, the two control measures were equally effective in suppressing the spread of the disease as the number of COVID-19 infections was significantly reduced. Thus, it was concluded that more attention should be paid to patients with COVID-19 with underlying comorbid conditions because the probability of being infected with COVID-19 is higher and mortality in this population is much higher. Finally, the combined control strategy is an optimal strategy that provides an effective guarantee to protect the public from the COVID-19 infection based on numerical simulations and cost evaluations.
AB - Comorbidity is defined as the coexistence of two or more diseases in a person at the same time. The mathematical analysis of the COVID-19 model with comorbidities presented includes model validation of cumulative cases infected with COVID-19 from 1 November 2020 to 19 May 2021 in Indonesia, followed by positivity and boundedness solutions, equilibrium point, basic reproduction number (R0), and stability of the equilibrium point. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine how the parameters affect the spread. Disease-free equilibrium points are asymptotically stable locally and globally if R0 < 1 and endemic equilibrium points exist, locally and globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. In addition, this disease is endemic in Indonesia, with R0 = 1.47. Furthermore, two optimal controls, namely public education and increased medical care, are included in the model to determine the best strategy to reduce the spread of the disease. Overall, the two control measures were equally effective in suppressing the spread of the disease as the number of COVID-19 infections was significantly reduced. Thus, it was concluded that more attention should be paid to patients with COVID-19 with underlying comorbid conditions because the probability of being infected with COVID-19 is higher and mortality in this population is much higher. Finally, the combined control strategy is an optimal strategy that provides an effective guarantee to protect the public from the COVID-19 infection based on numerical simulations and cost evaluations.
KW - COVID-19
KW - comorbidity
KW - cost evaluation
KW - optimal control
KW - sensitivity analysis
KW - stability
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85146521319&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3389/fams.2022.1096141
DO - 10.3389/fams.2022.1096141
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85146521319
SN - 2297-4687
VL - 8
JO - Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
JF - Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
M1 - 1096141
ER -