Dengue infection modeling and its optimal control analysis in East Java, Indonesia

Muhammad Altaf Khan, Fatmawati

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)


In this study, we present a mathematical model of dengue fever transmission with hospitalization to describe the dynamics of the infection. We estimated the basic reproduction number for the infected cases in East Java Province for the year 2018 is R0≈1.1138. The parameters of the dengue model are estimated by using the confirmed notified cases of East Java province, Indonesia for the year 2018. We formulated the model for dengue with hospitalization and present its dynamics in details. Initially, we present the basic mathematical results and then show briefly the stability results for the model. Further, we formulate an optimal control problem with control functions and obtain the optimal control characterization. The optimal control problem is solved numerically and the results comprised of controls system for different strategies. The controls such as prevention and insecticide could use the best role in the disease eradication from the community. Our results suggest that the prevention of humans from the mosquitoes and the insecticide spray on mosquitoes can significantly reduce the infection of dengue fever and may reduce further spread of infection in the community.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere06023
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2021


  • Dengue fever modeling
  • Optimal control
  • Parameters estimations
  • Real data
  • Stability analysis


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